The so-called streaming wars are heating up and, while at this point it’s probably like beating a dead horse, I thought I’d give my take on it. Netflix undoubtedly won Round One, in fact they decimated the competition. And Netflix’s success was so enviable that every media outlet wanted the same. And so, comes Round Two. Netflix dominated what little competition it had in Round One, but now it’s a much busier playing field. Disney Plus, Amazon Prime, Apple TV+, HBO Max, Paramount+, Hulu, Peacock, and many more are vying for the top spot- or are they?

I don’t think there will be any one winner of the streaming wars. Everyone will be a winner. The current ‘King’ of streaming, Netflix, made an estimated $25 billion in 2020, Disney Plus generated an estimated $4.5 billion, HBO Max made an estimated $3.8 billion. If that’s losing, I’d happily be called a loser. Which brings me to my point; all these corporations are winning, eventually they’ll be making tens of billions a year. That doesn’t mean they’ll all be the same though…

I believe there will be a ‘Big 5’. Netflix, Amazon Prime, Disney Plus, HBO Max (provided it launches worldwide), and Apple TV+. These five services will thrive, they will dominate the market, generate the most income, have the most influence, create the most content. Why? Netflix is the grandfather of streaming, it has had its foot in the proverbial door far too long to be ousted, and it has one invaluable advantage over all the others: experience. Netflix has been at this far longer than all the others, it is the blueprint for modern streaming, it paved the way, Disney Plus, HBO Max, all owe their success and even their existence, to Netflix. It isn’t going anywhere. Netflix’s experience also gives them knowledge about their audience. Netflix knows its audience well, it knows what we like, what is successful and what isn’t. Younger streaming services are just testing the water; yes, Disney has been going for over 90 years but 2021 is only its second year in streaming, and so it’s still figuring out what works and what doesn’t with regards to everything from their content to their user interface. Meanwhile Disney Plus and HBO Max will be part of this ‘Big 5’ because they are owned by Disney and Warner Bros respectively; two of the biggest studios in movie history, together they own some of the most famous intellectual property (IP) in history. Something we’ve already seen them both flex this year; Disney with their Star Wars TV shows, Marvel TV shows, and HBO Max having new DC films, gaining vast subscribers very quickly. Those two are also here to stay. 

The reason I also think Amazon Prime and, perhaps controversially, Apple TV+ will be part of the Big 5 is because they aren’t streamers, or movie studios. They are two of the biggest companies in the world. Apple TV+ is backed by a multi TRILLION-dollar company, Amazon Prime is owned by the richest man in the world, they have an almost infinite supply of cash to pour into their streaming services until they are hugely popular and successful, it doesn’t matter if they lose money. Netflix is valued at about $250 billion, which is a drop in the water compared to Amazon’s $1.7 trillion and an ever-smaller drop compared to Apple’s $2.08 trillion worth. Amazon Prime already has the second largest amount of subscribers behind only Netflix, and have also recently acquired MGM, one of the oldest movie studios in Hollywood, giving them a vault of legendary IP like Disney and Warner Bros. Apple TV+ is trailing behind with only (roughly) 65 million subscribers, but as I’ve said, Apple TV+ is backed by the single largest company in the world, its current ‘failings’ mean nothing, Apple will keep throwing money at it until it becomes successful. And many of Apple TV+’s subscribers are using the free trial provided when you buy a new Apple product, and if one year for free is an incentive to buy a $1,000 iPhone, or a $2,000 MacBook, Apple don’t really care. If people upgrade their iPhone with every new release and pay $1,000, that’s far more than a year’s subscription to Apple TV+ costs and as they upgrade yearly, people are getting a subscription to Apple TV+ at no extra cost in perpetuity so Apple simply are too big to care about streaming profits that much, but they’ll keep pouring money into it regardless so it will grow. Apple is also a baby streaming service, launching the same year as Disney+ but without the huge catalogue of pre-existing content Disney had, over the years they will grow and have more content, they can afford to swoop in and pay $250m at the drop of a hat to acquire Martin Scorsese’s next film: Killers of the Flower Moon, they have won Emmys, they have deals with some of the world’s biggest stars, and they will continue to do so. 

What about all the others, then? What happens to Peacock, or Hulu, or Paramount+? I think all of these will comfortably survive. They won’t come close to threatening Netflix, or Disney Plus, but they also won’t come close to going bankrupt. They will exist very comfortably and be successful, just not so successful to threaten the ‘big 5’. So, my predictions for the streaming wars are that everyone wins, and no-one loses. Well, not no-one but no streaming service…

Call me cynical but the only loser in all of this is us. The consumer. Traditional television died because to watch everything you wanted to, you had to pay for lots of different channels, then streaming, specifically Netflix came along and provided an alternative; stream whatever you want, whenever you want, no ads, at a tenth of the cost, if that. And Netflix boomed, which led to the birth of every movie studio, every TV channel having their own streaming service and so… we’ve done a loop. We went from having to buy lots of different channels to watch everything we wanted, to paying for one or two streaming services, back to having to buy lots of different streaming services (channels) to watch everything we want. Streaming also had the advantage of no ads, but HBO Max recently introduced a cheaper version with ads.

 Perhaps other services will follow suit and we will be back to spending more money on our TV and we’ll have to watch ads (if you can’t or don’t want to pay for the ad-free version). Still though, they can’t take away the benefit of being able to pick what to watch and when to watch it, so that’s good. Also, the actual content we’re getting is incredible and volume we’re getting it in is tremendous compared to the pre-Netflix era. However, to subscribe to every major streaming service isn’t that much cheaper than traditional TV anymore and the cost will continue to go up; Netflix Premium had a 17% price increase in the US between 2013 and 2017, and another 14% increase between 2017 and 2019 (their price increases aren’t limited to the premium service) and that increase isn’t limited to Netflix and it won’t stop. Streaming was successful, streaming changed the way we consume media, because it was better and cheaper than traditional TV, now it’s just better.